ABS hardware retail stats to May 2023
Signs of slowing growth continue
If hardware retail growth is set to decline over the next year, there are certainly indications that it will be slow decline. Revenues for hardware retailing in 2023 are closely matching those for 2022, with few signs of breaking much below that.
Thu Jul 06 2023
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its stats for hardware retail sales through to May 2023. HNN will use the trailing 12 months to May in analysing these stats, timespans which we refer to as "periods". This means that, for example, p2019 refers to the timespan from June 2018 to May 2019.
The trends HNN noted in reviewing the stats for April 2023 seem to be continuing, likely signalling the start of a slowdown in the growth of hardware retail revenues.
Most notable is the shift in growth from the east coast states - New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC), and Queensland (QLD) - to the other less populous states and territories. Comparing p2023 with p2022, South Australia (SA) is now the leader in both percentage growth, and numerical growth, with 12.6% and $195.4 million. Next, NSW recorded growth of 2.1% for the period, with an increase in revenue of $160 million. It is followed by Western Australia (WA), with 5.8% growth, from an increase in revenue of $150.0 million.
In percentage terms, it is followed by Australian Capital Territory (ACT) with 5.4% ($27.0 million), and then QLD at 2.6% ($136 million). VIC remains negative, with growth of -1.4%, and a loss of $89.4 million. While Northern Territory (NT) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) do not have individual historical stats available, combining the two (which makes little statistical sense, but is a very rough guide) showed growth of 5.0%, on an increase in revenue of $42.4 million.
Growth for Australia overall was 2.5% with an increase in revenue of $620.3 million.
New South Wales
Chart 1 shows that the current period continues to track below the previous period.
Victoria
VIC has been tracking below p2022 in p2023 since November 2022. It seems to be following the pattern for p2021.
Queensland
Chart 3, for QLD, is slightly more optimistic, with the result for May 2023 managing to get above May 2022. However, this is after tracking largely below p2022 in p2023 since December 2022.
South Australia
SA has managed to track above p2022 throughout p2023, as Chart 4 shows. However, its lead over the previous period has diminished.
Western Australia
Like SA, WA has managed to track relatively high, though the margin between p2022 and p2023 continues to shrink, as shown in Chart 5.
Australian Capital Territory
Since December 2022, ACT has seen its p2023 almost in lockstep with p2022 - and with May 2023 it has broken out above p2022 for the first time.
Analysis
As the chart for Australia as a whole shows, if there is a downturn taking place, it is - so far - relatively mild. As with many of the states and territories, p2022 and p2023 seem very close since December 2022, but there has been a little decrease since March 2023.
Some of the research HNN has done which will be featured in HI News shows that many of the assumptions being made about the origin of the housing shortage may not necessarily show the entire picture. For example, there has been a noticeable increase in sole-resident dwellings through the pandemic years, a situation which will likely correct itself over time. Likewise the shift to less-efficient (in cost terms) detached housing will probably swing back to more multi-dwelling residences as time passes and the COVID-19 scars heal.
What will be interesting to see is whether the overall elevated level of spending on hardware continues, or we begin to see an "averaging" back down over the rest of the current decade.
Related
ABS hardware retail revenue to April 2023 - HNN Flash, June 2023ABS hardware retail stats from the same period, 12 months ago.
ABS hardware retail stats to May 2022 - HNN Flash, July 2022